The Japanese Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries announced Wednesday that Japan’s rice production in 2024 is expected to reach 6.83 million tons, exceeding the estimated demand of 6.74 million tons through June next year.
According to the ministry’s forecast, private sector rice inventories are expected to recover from a historic low of 1.53 million tons at the end of June 2024 to 1.62 million tons by the end of June 2025. This projection provides a positive signal following supply shortages and price spikes caused by reduced harvest due to extreme summer temperatures in the previous season.
However, rice prices as a staple food may remain relatively high. Observers note that production costs, including utilities and fertilizers, are expected to remain elevated due to inflation.
Regarding demand, the ministry believes the long-term declining trend will persist. Recent demand growth is primarily attributed to rice prices rising more slowly compared to bread and noodles, and increased rice consumption in the restaurant industry driven by booming inbound tourism.
Rice production in 2025 is expected to remain steady at 6.83 million tons, but demand may fall to 6.63 million tons due to factors including high prices.
However, the supply-demand outlook may face adjustments. During a ministry-hosted meeting, some experts warned that “the risk of demand decline is high” due to the reversal of sudden demand increases this year and price increases.
The ministry also released an analysis report on summer rice shortages. The report noted that after the Meteorological Agency issued its first warning in August about increased risk of a Nankai Trough earthquake, people began stockpiling rice, causing supply to fall behind demand growth.
Key Points:
- Japan’s 2024 rice production expected to reach 6.83 million tons, exceeding projected demand.
- Private sector rice inventories expected to recover from historic lows.
- Despite improved supply, high production costs likely to keep rice prices elevated.
- Long-term rice demand continues downward trend
- Demand expected to further decrease to 6.63 million tons in 2025.
- Summer rice shortage partly attributed to stockpiling following Nankai Trough earthquake warning.
